Earth, 2174

[bartmoss]

It's an interesting thought and I had considered it; I decided against it.

I just really can't see any European country isolating itself from the EU unless something catastrophic happens to the European Union, especially in a situation like Earth-2174 where the EU not only covers Europe, but extends beyond it. I don't see the Commonwealth trade make up for losing easy access to the mainland.

Besides, it's not like ALL of UK is against the EU, there are also proponents, and polls on the subject are likely highly influenced by the politics of the day. So for example right now, I'd imagine you'd get an 80%+ majority against joining the Euro; but this will look vastly different once Oil becomes less of a key ressource, and thus oil-backed currencies (esp the US$) lose in value against other currencies. If the Euro can survive the current unpleasantness - and I predict it will - then it's "weathered" - it'll gain more confidence than it's currently losing.

If the UK ever becomes a "dictatorship" of some sort - or otherwise run by elected fringe groups - then of course all bets are off, but again I can't really see that happen except by whim of the world builder.

Now, as for aggressors:

Current Commonwealth members that are close to China: Malaysia, Papua New Guinea (which we had join Indonesia), Australia, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka. India and Pakistan are allies, and both are nuclear armed - they are unlikely to fear anything from China that the UK could protect them from.

Commonwealth members close to the US: A bunch of minor caribbean islands, and Canada. The US isn't going to pick a fight with Canada (not necessary), and even if - that's a situational problem, and not something that would fuse the Commonwealth together or even expand it.

Islamic Union expansion in Africa could be the most clear and present danger to the Commonwealth, but half of Nigeria already is in the IU, and again it's probably nothing that can't be dealt solely by expanding / renewing / strengthening the commonwealth.

So, long story short, I just don't see it happen :-)

[Harrg]

Ukraine and Belorusija as a part of EU) So have joined three slavic people is a pity again that. How much I remember still Bismarck said that the Power of Russia to is undermined only by branch from her Ukraine … it can be necessary not only to tear off, but also to oppose Ukraine to Russia, to pit two parts of the uniform people and to observe, how the brother will kill the brother. For this purpose it is necessary to find and grow only traitors among national elite and with their help to change consciousness of one part of the great people to such degree that he will hate all Russian, to hate the sort, without realizing it. All the rest — time business. And it is better to make Russia not federation and an autocratic monarchy led by the new tsar who will begin a new dynasty)))))
Good luck

[AlexTna]

Just remembered I had a project at the university about the export/import of a chosen country. I picked South Africa and as i developed the project found out that for a long time SA enjoyed and still does have good relations with fellow SACU (Souther African Customs Union) members (Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland). In my opinion it is unlikely that the rest of Africa doesn't form some sort of coalition against the IU (Southern Africa does not have a high muslim population), at a given point in time they will feel the pressure from the IU's expansion and will need to group up if they don't want to be taken one by one. In addition to the states I mentioned earlier, other states in the proximity might want to join. They wont probably unite in a federal state, but a economic and defensive coalition is plausible, something similor to NATO or the EU. As I see your maps I get the feeling there is a trend of grouping up to put up with the other super-states.

[bartmoss]

Actually, Russia-2174 is fairly authoritarian. They still call themselves "Russian Federation" though.

[Whip It]

Hey, my apologies for not reading the entire thread (my time is limited at the moment, I'll probably read it at a later date) but I'm really interested in what you have in plan for Australia. Will it be its own country, or assimilated into a union/empire/etc.?

EDIT: Actually, just in response to what the person above me said - Australia's population is currently around the 21 million mark (there's a census this year however, so it'll probably be higher). I'm not sure what you've got in plan for population growth but tripling our current population is still only around 65 million people. I have no clue what the political environment will be like then and whether the Earth can support many more people but yeah, 65 million isn't that many people for 150 years into the future, especially when Australia's roughly the same size as USA.

[AlexTna]

Problem is Australia does not have as much habitable land as US/Canada have, so there probably is a limit to how much people can live in the more hospitable areas like the coasts, east, n-east and s-east. And global warming is going to probably make things worst.

[bartmoss]

I frankly haven't given Australia that much thought. It, and NZ, are geographically a little isolated. Anyway; yes, AU has comparatively little habitable land. Future technology might change that to some extent, and global warming may worsen this (it seems that there has been trouble already in recent years, but again it's difficult to spot long term trends from such short term events). On the other hand, Australia is a BIG country, and you can pack people quite densely without much problems. So a population of ~60 Mio doesn't sound too unrealistic without checking any sources.

As an aside, I am overall going with a VERY conservative population model, see: http://enderra.com/2011/06/09/future...on-population/ By 2174, it has been steadily in decline. Granted, much of that fluctuation is going to be in Asia and Africa, but in general Earth in the 22nd Century isn't going to be an overpopulated hell.

I think AU is going to stay a country much in its current form; some sort of economic union is possible but then there's really not that many neighbours to form unions with. It'll maintain good relations with Indonesia, probably be vary of China, and otherwise it's more or less business as usual. If I have any really original - and realistic - ideas I might change my mind of course. For example, fear of China might mean Australia keeps backing the US even in the times of the Briggs government; this could lead to some tightening of laws (much as Australia also seems to have aped the US Anti Terror laws, but then which country didn't), and it could mean that the Australians afterwards have to carry a bit of guilt around - "We supported WHAT NOW?". Briggs wasn't quite a Hitler, though, so in the big picture this doesn't seem too significant.

[bartmoss]

Just a quick additional map in the series - the FN (yes, named after the Heinlein world government) members are:



It's not 100% cast in stone. Discussion/Notes on my blog as well, as always - http://enderra.com/2011/09/13/earth-...rated-nations/

[arsheesh]

Very crisp and clean; and the colors really pop. Nice job so far Bart.

Cheers,
-Arsheesh

[Rhotherian]

What a plausible-looking future you have here.


I also have a "map of the future" for a sries of novels of fine that takes place between a hundred and two hundred years in the future. Earth is quite a bit more unified, though.

I think I posted it on here somewhere...