I'm pretty sure nobody does. I mean, there are computer models, of course, but it's too early to really judge them. There's been a relative explosion of deep-ocean data in recent years, but anything that deals with the deep ocean is still working with limited information and when we are still trying to work from a general to detailed understanding of what actually happens, trying to answer counterfactual scenarios leaves a lot of room for speculation.Originally Posted by octopod
Of course, half of "hard" science fiction is recognizing when you're violating known science so you can cover with some technobabble (ideally with something that's at least superficially plausible, like "the water warms here because of extensive underwater vulcanism") or sidestep entirely as so normal in the setting as to be accepted without comment.
I think a few general rules like this are the best you can do, especially without trying to map out the entire sea floor and run a resource-intensive simulation. We can certainly say that certain proposals would definitely not be at all likely, so the rules can keep from creating something implausible, but I think there's still going to be a lot of wiggle room to assume things flow in ways that are productive of the situations desired by the author.The formation of deep water is governed by density, which is a balance between salinity and temperature, both of which are governed by wind-driven surface evaporation. So...
1) Fast wind and freezing temperatures both cause water to become colder and saltier, and therefore to sink; hot rainy climates make it warmer and fresher and therefore less dense. (Hot dry weather and cold rain both have less effect, obviously)
2) The water that sinks to the bottom flows downhill, and flows away from the points where it sinks from the surface; water is "produced" at the rainy tropical latitudes and flows toward the points where it sinks.
I don't know what you can do with this -- I have to go do other science but I'll be back later. :-P
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